Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
